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卓胜微：3Q performance dragged by weak mobile; It is always darkest before dawn

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简介卓胜微(300782)Maxscendannouncedits3Q22results.3Qrevenuedeclined30.5%YoYand13.6%QoQt

卓胜微(300782)

Maxscendannouncedits3Q22results.3Qrevenuedeclined30.5%YoYand13.6%QoQtoRMB782mn.NPtoshareholdersfell54.6%YoYand20.5%QoQtoRMB233mn.Thedeclinewasmainlyattributabletotheweakmobilemarket.3QGPMincreasedslightlyto54.1%(vs.52.4%/52.7%for1Q/2Q22).Weloweredourforecastsfor2022/23Esalesby25%/30%,duetobothtoughmacroenvironmentandprolongedweaknessobservedinmobile,particularlyinAndroidnames.However,consideringaseriesofsolidprogressachievedfrominternalR&D(e.g.,SAWfilter,Diplexer,DiFEM,etc.),weexpecttheCompanywillcontinuetorolloutproductsinnewcategoriesthataredominatedbyoverseasnames.WemaintainapositiveoutlookforMaxscend,givenitsleadingpositionindomesticRFFEmarketandproventrackrecordofitsmanagementteam.MaintainBUY,withrevisedTPofRMB107.8reflectingreducing22/23Esales.

IndustryheadwindmayprovideanopportunityforMaxscend.Despitemobileweakness,Maxscend’s3Qresultswereresilient.TheCompanyreportedGPMof54.1%(up1.3%from2Q),showingitsrelativelystrongpositioninabroadweakmarket.GPMisestimatedtodrop2%in2023duetoincreasingyieldofnewproducts,butwillremainstableat~50%,muchhigherthanitspeers(figure3).ThehighGPMwillhelpMaxscendtomaintainitsleadingpositionindomesticRFFEmarketbycontinuouslyinvestinginR&D(3QR&Dexp.grew55.1%YoY).Meanwhile,somesmallerpeersarestrugglingtosurvive.WebelieveMaxscendwillbeabeneficiaryofapotentialsectorconsolidation,followingthesamepathofitsglobalpeers(e.g.,SkyworksandQorvo).

Maxscend’sproductportfolioexpansionisonschedule.Maxscend’snewfablinehasenteredmassproduction.TheCompany’sownfilterproductshavebeenshipped.Meanwhile,diplexerandmultiplexersareunderclienttesting.WeexpecttheCompanytodelivermoreprogressonhigh-endfilterandintegratedmodulesnextyear.AlthoughtherecentU.S.exportcurbhasnoimpactonRFFEsector,China’ssemilocalizationtrendiscertain.Thiswillcreatemoreopportunitiesfordomesticplayers.

MaintainBUYwithTPreviseduptoRMB107.8.ThenewTPisbasedon36xrollover23EP/E,lowerthan1SDbelow2-yrhist.avg.of43.6xforwardP/E.Wekeptthevaluationof36xP/Eunchangedaswebelieve1)semilocalizationtrendiscertainand2)MaxscendisventuringintosomekeyRFFEcomponentareaswhicharedominatedbyoverseassuppliers(domesticpresenceincertaincomponents/modulesarenearlyzero).

Potentialrisksinclude1)disappointingdemandinmobile,2)intensifiedcompetition,3)slower-than-expectedR&Dand4)furtherdeteriorationinmacroenvironment.PotentialupsideincludesM&Aopportunities.

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卓胜微：3Q performance dragged by weak mobile; It is always darkest before dawn

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