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三峡能源：Sound business operation; rising depreciation drags on earnings

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简介三峡能源(600905)CTGRGroupannouncedits1H23results,within-linebusinessoperationbutoper

三峡能源(600905)

CTGRGroupannouncedits1H23results,within-linebusinessoperationbutoperatingcostmissingexpectations.CTGRachievedrevenueofRMB13.70bn,upby12.98%YoY.AttributableNPwasRMB4.52bn,droppedby10.10%YoY.AlthoughCTGRreportedsolidoperationinelectricitygenerationandslightlybeaton-gridtariff,theincreaseincostsandoperatingexpenses(underupdatedaccountingstandards)ledtoadropinearnings.WebelieveCTGRwillgrowrapidlysinceitsabundantprojectsunderconstructionareabouttooperatein2H23andfollowingyears,andlowernewenergyupstreamcostswillleadtohigherIRRoftheprojects.WeadjustedourTPtoRMB6.24andmaintainedaBUYrating.

Robustoperationalperformancedrives1H23revenuegrowth;risingoperatingcostserodeoverallearnings.In1H23,CTGR’srevenuewasupby12.98%YoYduetoresilientpowergenerationgrowth.AttributableNPdroppedby10%YoY.Itsoperatingcashflowrose21.79%YoY.CTGR’srevenuerosewhileattributableNPslippeddueto:1)14.55%YoYriseinon-gridpowergeneration;2)slightlybeaton-gridtariffforwind/solarpowerofRMB0.496/0.506/kWh;3)34.67%YoYincreaseinoperatingcoststhankstohigherdepreciationunderaccountingstandardchange(thedepreciationofprojectoperationcostsaccrueastheunitsenteroperationin2023afteratrialrunin2022)andhighermanagementfee;and4)1.6%YoYriseinmanagementexpenses,whileinvestmentearningsdescendedbyRMB0.27bn.

CTGRhasabundantprojectsinconstructionandapproved,withexpectedpromisinggrowth.In1H23,CTGRrecordedanewly-addednewenergyinstalledcapacityofapproximately1.8GW(0.84/0.65GWofwind/solarpower).Moreover,CTGRrecordedanapprovedandfiledprojectcapacityof5.5GW,andtheplannedinstalledcapacityofprojectsunderconstructiontotalled13.2GW.Withtheprojectsgraduallycommencingby2H23andnextyear,CTGR’sinstalledcapacityofnewenergyisexpectedtospeedup.Meanwhile,CTGR’sIRRofnewly-addedpowerplantprojectswillpotentiallyclimbduetolowerupstreamcosts,benefitingCTGR’searnings.

WeadjustedourTPtoRMB6.24,maintainedBUY.Consideringaccountingstandardadjustment,weslightlyraisedourestimatedoperatingcosttoRMB12,219/14,344/16,371mninFY23-25E,andadjustedattributableNPtoRMB8,932/10,534/12,956mninFY23-25E.However,wemaintainedourkeyassumptionsunchangedandstayedoptimisticaboutCTGRthankstoitssolidgrowthofpowergenerationandsteadyon-gridtariff,andseveralprojectsareabouttostartoperation.Thus,weraisedourtargetFY23EPEfrom18xto20x(closeto3-yearhist.avg.PEof19x)foritssoundbusinessoutlook,andweadjustedourTPtoRMB6.24.MaintainBUY

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三峡能源：Sound business operation; rising depreciation drags on earnings

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