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北方华创：Robust earnings with margin expansion;Maintain BUY

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简介北方华创(002371)Nauraannounced1H24results.1Hrevenuegrew46.4%YoYtoRMB12.3bn,whileNPgr

北方华创(002371)

Nauraannounced1H24results.1Hrevenuegrew46.4%YoYtoRMB12.3bn,whileNPgrew54.5%YoYtoRMB2.8bn,bothaligningwiththemid-pointofcompany’searningspre-announcement.1H24revenue/NPwere40%/46%ofourFY24Eforecast,consistentwiththecompany’shistoricalseasonality,whichsaw38%/46%in1H23.GPMimprovedto45.5%in1H24(vs.42%/41%in1H23/FY23),whileNPMexpandedto22.5%in1H24from17.7%inFY23.WethinkNaura’s1H24resultsconfirmthatthecompany’sgrowthtrajectoryremainsintact.Lookingforward,weexpectNaurato1)ridethetailwindsofsemiconductorlocalizationtrend,2)growonproductcoverageexpansionandmarketsharegains,and3)benefitfromeconomiesofscaleandimprovingGPM.ReiterateBUYwithTPunchangedatRMB405.

1H24revenuein-linewithexpectation.Fromaquarterlystandpoint,2Q24revenue/NPincreasedby42.2%/37.0%YoY(vs.38%/120%YoYin2Q23)and10.5%/46.8%QoQ.Wemaintainourpreviousrevenueprojectionfor2024/25E,giventhein-lineresults.Thecompany’s1H24semiconductorequipmentrevenueincreasedby55.1%YoY,makingup92%oftotalrevenue(vs.87%in1H23).Webelievethatescalatinggeopoliticaltensions,coupledwiththepushforfasterdomesticationofsemiconductorequipmentandfavorablepolicies/subsidies,havecontributedtothecompany’senhancedrevenuein1H24.Weexpecttheequipmentsegmenttogrow45.9%/28.5%YoYin2024/25E,andmaintainourtotalrevenueprojectionatRMB30.9bn/RMB39.0forthesameperiod,implying39.7%/26.5%growth.

Better-than-expectedGPMexpansion,drivenbyfavourableproductmixandeconomiesofscale.2QGPMwas47.4%,up4.0pptsequentially.Werevisedupour2024/25EGPMforecastsby5.2ppt/3.9ppt,aswebelieveNaurawillcontinuetobenefitfromthesetailwindsandmaintainGPMatasimilarlevel.Werevisedupour2024/25ENPforecastsby9%/1%,onhigherGPMestimates.TheaccretiveimpactwillbepartiallyoffsetbyhigherR&Dandotheroperatingexpenses,sinceNaura’spriorityistoexpanditsproductcoverage.

WereiterateourBUYratingforNaura,withanunchangedTPatRMB405.TheTPimpliesavaluationat35.77x2024EP/E,closeto1SDabove2-yearhistoricalaverageforwardP/E,whichwethinkisjustifiedconsideringNaura’sleadingpositionindomesticsemiconductorequipmentmarket.Nauraisourfavouritepickunderthesemiconductorlocalizationtheme.Risks:1)intensifiedcompetitionfromoverseasanddomesticpeersand2)escalatinggeopoliticaltensions.

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北方华创：Robust earnings with margin expansion;Maintain BUY

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