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海康威视：Taking time to recover

admin2023-04-17 11:30 72人已围观 下载完整内容

简介海康威视(002415)HikvisiondeliveredaweakerthanexpectedFY1Q23withrevenueofRMB16.2bn(-2

海康威视(002415)

HikvisiondeliveredaweakerthanexpectedFY1Q23withrevenueofRMB16.2bn(-2%YoY)andnetprofitofRMB1.81bn(-21%YoY).Sequentialimprovementintop-line(vs-9%YoYinFY4Q22)andGPM(+1.4pptsYoY)werethebrightspots.HikvisionwillfocusonqualitygrowthinFY23Ewithbettercontrolonprojectprofitability,headcount(+10%YoYinFY22,stableinFY23E)andopex.WethinkrecentsharepricereboundhasreflectedthepositivesinearningsrecoveryandtheRMB2.0bnsharerepurchase.DowngradetoHOLD.

FY1Q23missalthoughrevenuedeclinenarrowedandGPMimproved.Hikvisionreportedin-lineFY22withrevenueofRMB83.17bn(+2%YoY)andnetprofitofRMB12.84bn(-24%YoY).Theweaknessinnetprofitwasdueto1)GPMerosion(-2pptsYoYto42.3%)and2)higheropex(+17%YoY)asheadcountgrew+10%YoYto58,280.FY1Q23resultsremainedmutedwithrevenueofRMB16.2bn(-2%YoY)andnetprofitofRMB1.81bn(-21%YoY).Asequentiallynarroweddeclineintop-line(-2%YoYvs.-9%YoYinFY4Q22)andGPMimprovement(+1.4pctptsYoY)wereyettooffsetthehigheropex(+16%YoY).

PositiveontheinnovativebusinessesgrowthprospectbutyettoseeareboundinPBG/SMBG/overseassegments.Post-COVIDrecoverywasslowerthanexpectedthatonlyEBG(LargeEnterprise-focused)resumedpositivegrowthinFY1Q23.ReboundinPBG(PublicSecurity),SMBG(SME)andoverseasbusinessisnotinsightyet.Thatsaid,wearepositiveontherevenuediversificationwithinnovativebusinesses(e.g.SmartHomeAIoT/Robotics,etc.)revenuecontributionroseto18%inFY22vs.10%inFY20.Non-surveillancebusinesswillremainasthecoregrowthdriver(FY22revenuegrew+22.8%YoYtoRMB15.07bn).

FocusonqualitygrowthinFY23E.ManagementbelievesHikvisionbusinesshasbottomedoutfromthepandemicwithFY4Q22beingthetrough.Weexpecttoseesequentialimprovementintop-lineandmarginasthecompanyfocusesonqualitygrowthinFY23Ewithtightercontrolonprojectprofitability,headcountandopex.WeestimateHikvisionnetmargintoimprovefrom15.4%inFY22to17.7%inFY23E.

Lacknear-termcatalysts,downgradetoHOLD.WetrimmedFY23-24Enetprofitby7-9%toreflectaslowrecoveryfromCOVID.Sharepricehasreboundedby66%sinceitsbottominOct2022.Wethinktheexistingpricelevelhasreflectedthenear-termpositives(earningsrecoveryandtheRMB2bnsharerepurchaseiscompleted).DowngradetoHOLDwithnewtargetpriceofRMB47.29,basedonhigher27x(prior20x)FY23EP/E,inlinewith3-yearmeanasbusinessbottomedoutfromCOVID.

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