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恒立液压：Positive takeaways from plant visit

admin2023-03-13 13:30 116人已围观 下载完整内容

简介恒立液压(601100)WeupgradeHenglitoBUYfromHoldforthefirsttimesinceMay2021.Weareturning

恒立液压(601100)

WeupgradeHenglitoBUYfromHoldforthefirsttimesinceMay2021.WeareturningpositiveaftervisitingHengli’sproductionbaselastweek.Inthenearterm(comingmonths),webelievethegrowth(YoY)ofexcavatorhydrauliccylinderproductioninMar,aftergoingthroughadecliningtrendsincelate2021,suggestsanearlysignofturnaroundofdownstreamdemand.Besides,productionofAWPmotorinMarisexpectedtoreacharecordhigh,whichreaffirmsourpositivestanceonAWP.Fromalong-termperspective(1-3years),continuousmarketsharegaininpump&valves,aswellaspenetrationintoglobalagriculturalmachinerycomponentmarketwillofferhighvisibilitytoHengli’searnings.Inaddition,thecommencementofproductionbaseinMexico(estimatedannualoutputvalueofRMB1.5-2.0bn)in3Q23EwillhelpspeedupthepenetrationintheUSmarket.Wereviseupour2023E/24Eearningsforecastby1%/10%.OurTPisraisedtoRMB90,basedon42x2023EP/E,1SDabovethe4-yearaverageof30xtoreflecttheaccelerationofearningsgrowth.

ExcavatorhydrauliccylindergrowthturnspositiveinMar.WeunderstandthatHenglihasscheduledproductionof64kunitsofexcavatorhydrauliccylinderinMar,whichrepresents12%growthYoY.WebelievethegrowthislargelydrivenbyChineseOEM’sorders.

Growthofexcavatorpump&valvetocontinuein2023E.WhileHenglihashighmarketshareinpump&valveforsmall-sizeexcavator(>50%),theshareinmedium-largesizeexcavatorisonly~15%.WeseeahighchanceforHenglitoachievefurthermarketsharegaingiventhesolidtrackrecordincylinder,pump&valve(small-size).

Agriculturalmachinerycomponentgrowthtoaccelerate.Henglioffersmotors,pumps&valvesforagriculturalmachinerysuchascottonpickersandcombinedharvesters.Thesecomponentscarryshorterusefullifethanthatofexcavatorgiventhecontinuousoperationofthepumpingsystem.Thisimpliesalargeaftersalesmarket.AgainstthebackdropofsupplychaindisruptioninEurope,HenglicapturestheopportunityofpenetratingintotheagriculturemachinerycomponentmarketinEurope.WeforecastHenglitoachieveRMB500mnrevenueinoverseasin2023E(up100%+YoY).InChinamarket,weexpecttheimportsubstitutiontrendwillofferlargegrowthpotentialgiventhelowbase.

AWPmotor:Surpriseontheupside.Hengli’sproductionvolumeofmotor(largelyforAWP)isexpectedtoreach23kinMar,representing90%+growth.WeseepotentialforHenglitocontinuetopenetrateintotheglobalAWPmotormarketasoverseasAWPOEMsarefacingsupplychainbottleneck.Asacrosscheck,Hengli’sstrongproductionfigureinMaralsoreaffirmsourbullishviewonZhejiangDingli(603338CH,BUY).

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