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三一重工：2023 net profit a miss; 1Q24 still weak; Stay on the sidelines

admin2024-04-29 15:31 76人已围观下载完整内容

简介三一重工(600031)SANYHeavy(SANY)’snetprofitin2023cameinatRMB4.53bn(+6%YoY),whichis12%

三一重工(600031)

SANYHeavy(SANY)’snetprofitin2023cameinatRMB4.53bn(+6%YoY),whichis12%belowbothourandconsensusestimates.Inaddition,netprofitin1Q24onlygrew5%YoYtoRMB1.58bnduetoalackofrevenuegrowth(-1%YoY).Wearestillconcernedaboutfurtherslowdownofexportthisyear,giventheweaknessintheoverseasdemand(inparticularinEurope).Wemaintainour2024Eearningsforecastbutreviseupour2025Eestimatesby8%aswetakeintoconsiderationamoderaterecoveryinChina’smarket.Still,ournewestimatesremain24%/29%belowconsensus.MaintainHOLDwithnewTPofRMB14.8,basedon24x2024EP/E.

4Q23resultsbelowexpectations.Revenuedeclined17%YoYtoRMB17.9bn.Grossmarginnarrowed1.9pptYoYto25.6%.EBITwasRMB698mn(-25%YoY),largelyhelpedbyafairvaluegainofRMB602mn.Netprofitdroppedby29%YoYtoRMB480mn.

Slowdownofoverseasrevenuein2H23.Overseasrevenuein2H23(62%ofSANY’srevenue)grew4%YoYtoRMB20.8bn(slowedfrom36%in1H23).Intermsofregion,Europegrew15%YoYtoRMB8.1bn(39%ofoverseasrevenue).AsiaPacific(ex-China)remainedstableatRMB7.6bn(36%ofoverseas).BothAmericaandAfricarevenuedropped6%YoYin2H23(17%/7%ofoverseas).

Sluggish1Q24results.Revenuedropped1%YoYwhilegrossmarginexpanded0.5pptto28.4%.HelpedbylowerR&Dandadministrativeexpenseratio,netprofitgrew5%YoYtoRMB1.58bn.Onthepositiveside,operatingcashflowimprovedsignificantlytoRMB4.38bn(vs-RMB1.6bnin1Q23).

Valuation.WereviseupourTPtoRMB14.8,basedon24x2024EP/Ewhichisequivalentto0.5SDabovetheaverageof20xsince2017(previousTP:RMB12.3,basedon19x).WenowapplyanaboveaveragetargetmultipleasweseeinitialsignsofstabilisationofexcavatorsalesinChina’smarket,andweexpectamoderaterecoveryin2025E.

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三一重工：2023 net profit a miss; 1Q24 still weak; Stay on the sidelines

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