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泰格医药:Expect business rebound in 2024E

admin2024-04-02 14:30 41人已围观 下载完整内容

简介泰格医药(300347)Tigermedreported2023revenueofRMB7,384mn,up4.2%YoY,andattributablerec

泰格医药(300347)

Tigermedreported2023revenueofRMB7,384mn,up4.2%YoY,andattributablerecurringnetincomeofRMB1,477mn,down4.1%YoY.Revenue/attributablerecurringnetincomemissedourforecastby2.9%/12.1%,respectively,mainlyduetoshrinkingCOVIDvaccinerevenue,slowdowninglobalR&Dactivities,andcontractedmarginsstemmingfromtemporarypricingadjustmentscoupledbyrelativelylowerlabfacilityutilization.Neworderssignedin2023amountedtoRMB7.85bn,down18.8%YoY,mainlydueto~RMB1.2bnreductionofCOVIDpass-throughorders.Nonetheless,thetotalbacklogexperiencedamilduptickof2.1%YoY,reachingRMB14.1bnbytheendof2023,whichprovidesasolidfoundationforsustainablegrowth.Managementhasobservedearlyindicatorsofademandresurgenceandanticipatesthatbothrevenueandattributablerecurringnetincomewillachievemid-teengrowthin2024E,signalingarobustrecoveryfromthepreviousyear.

Earlysignsofdemandrecovery.Tigermedexperiencedheightenedvolatilityinclientdemandin2023duetosubduedglobalbiotechfundingandescalatingcompetitionintheclinicalCROmarket.However,managementhasobservedapositiveshiftinmacrosentimentsincelate2023,withbiopharmaceuticalfundinginChinaexhibitingasignificantsequentialrebound.InJan-Feb2024,Tigermend’snewordersregaineddouble-digitgrowth,particularlyintheUSandAustralianmarkets,accordingtothemanagement.Withthistrendtocontinue,managementmaintainsapositiveforecastforfull-yeardemand.Additionally,wewanttohighlightTigermed’spromisinggrowthpotentialinChina’smarketasthegovernmentpersistswithitssupportivepoliciesfordomesticpharmaceuticalR&D.

Well-progressingglobalizationstrategy.ThechallengesoftheindustrydidnotdampenTigermed’scommitmenttoglobalization.Underpinnedbyagrowinganddedicatedteamof110PMsandCRAs,Tigermed’sUSclinicaloperationsawrapidgrowthinrevenueandbacklogin2023.ItslocalizedclinicaloperationteamenablesTigermedtobettercaptureopportunitiesfrombothChinesepharmaceuticalcompanieslookingtoentertheUSmarket,aswellasfromUSclientsnotfullyservedbyglobalclinicalCROs.TigermedacquiredaCroatia-basedclinicalCRO,MartiFarm,inJan2023,furtherbolsteringitsservicecapabilitiesinEurope.TigermedhasestablishedclinicalteamsinSouthKorea,SoutheastAsiaandAustralia.Owingtoitsstrongperformanceintheglobalmarket,Tigermedsigned15MRCTprojectsin2023.Wethinkawell-establishedglobalnetworkwillhelpTigermedinmitigatingpotentialgeopoliticalrisks.

MaintainBUY.WerevisedourTPfromRMB80.31toRMB68.57,basedona10-yearDCFmodel(WACC:10.95%,terminalgrowth:2.0%),tofactorinslowerprojectionofrevenueandrecurringnetincomegrowth.WeforecastTigermed’srevenuetogrow13.3%/17.7%/21.9%YoYandattributablerecurringnetincometogrow14.2%/22.7%/27.4%YoYin2024E/25E/26E,respectively.

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